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The EU LCS Spring Promotion match between H2k Gaming and Copenhagen Wolves is now just 5 days away, taking place on Tuesday September 9^th at 7 pm. While it is not the first time the Wolves face relegation, they have shown great resilience in the past, while H2k aim to finally supplant them and claim their stop in the LCS.

It’s hard to make a case again the odds being firmly in favor of H2k.

The team carries a stable lineup and an increasing momentum that the Wolves simply don’t have right now. H2K have also been working with Korean coach Woong in the build uo to the game, an edge again perhaps that the Wolves will find tough to match. Conversly CW have made several roster changes in the summer split and their performances have been inconstant.

The matchups will be as follows:

• TOP: Youngbuck (CW) vs. Odamne (H2k)
• Jungle: Airwacks (CW)  vs. Trashy (H2k)
• MID: SorenXD (CW) vs. Febiven (H2k)
• ADC: Woolite (CW) vs. Hjarnan  (H2k)
• Support: Unlimited (CW) vs. AoD (H2k)

Top lane matchup
The top lane is often referred to as an island. However roaming and lane swapping has been occurring more often than not in the games leading up to this relegation series. If history is any indicator we know that even though the carry top laners have seen a rise in popularity, Youngbuck and Odoamne will most likely show another clash of the tanky top lane champions.  If so, and depending on pick and bans, Odoamne will probably have an advantage.

This is why.
Odoamne has already shown that he is capable of performing well on both Dr. Mundo and Maokai, which provides an important level of engage potential and tankyness to any team composition. Youngbuck has played Dr. Mundo, but it is still unknown whether he has picked up Moakai. Leaving Maokai open and not being able to play him will undoubtfully be an issue. Top laners in other regions have already proven what a menace the tree can be.  Also, if Copenhagen Wolves use one of their bans on taking away Maokai, this will also leave open champions that might cause problems for them elsewhere.

Jungle matchup
The current jungle meta allows for several different play styles. With Airwaks facing off against Trashy, the first mentioned will have an issue if he still suffers from a limited champion pool. Airwaks had a hard time in the LCS and in the beginning he was often banned out, which resulted in him picking strange jungle champions such as Yorick. In the end it did not work out well, and because of that he was replaced with Brokeshard for a while. Now he is back, but little is known in regard to how much he has improved.

Trashy however has not shown a weakness in terms of champion pool. He also has momentum because he is coming off of a win streak.  While Thrasy is capable of carrying his team, historically he does not need to. What he needs to do is apply pressure and he usually does that really well. Because of that H2k has the edge in the jungle matchup.

Mid lane matchup
The two players facing off in the mid lane have two different yet somewhat equally effective play styles. The main thing separating them is mechanics and momentum.

While SorenXD often focuses on farm heavy wave clear champions like Orianna and Ryze, Febiven is a play maker that often will go for assassins or champions centered on applying map pressure. Febiven have some pretty awesome stats on both Twisted Fate and Ahri from the Challenger Series. From these statistics alone it is pretty hard not to think he will be able to out play his opponent in the mid lane.

Bot lane matchup
In the current meta, late game AD carrys such as Tristana and Kog’ Maw are definetly contested picks. Interestingly enough Woolite has only been favoring Tristana, while Hjarnan has been focused on Kog’ Maw. Both champions serve a similar purpose, but if one or both are banned there will be a battle for Lucian. Lucian seems to be the fallback champion for both AD carrys. In terms of mechanics it is hard to pick a superior ADC, but it is worth mentioning that Woolite did win the “Best newcomer” award for the summer split and that should not be overlooked. He is also known for superb positioning in team fights.

Seeing as the ADC matchup might be hard to call, the bot lane will most likely be decided by the supports. If so, CW will have an advantage. While Unlimited is favors the tanky play making supports such as Braum, Alistar, Blitzcrank and Thresh, AoD will mostly pick utility supports such as Nami or Morgana. The issue for AoD in this case is that he does not play any of Unlimited’s favorite champions, Unlimited how ever, has shown that he is able to play the support champions AoD would want to play.

Therefor the CW bot lane will most likely have an edge in a straight up two vs. two.

What does this mean?
Looking at the lane matchups for the relegation matches, H2k stands to win Top, jungle and mid lane. If H2k win these matchups, CW will have a big problem if Woolite and Unlimited is not able to get ahead and snowball from the bot lane. CW needs to get a lead before the game transitions into mid game team fights. If they cannot do that, CW will not be able to control the pace of the game. That would leave CW with having to hope that H2K makes a mistake that they can capitalize on.

So if something drastic has not happened on CW, the pressure is on their bot lane to carry.  The problem with that is that it is fairly easy for H2k to not let them. Hjarnan and AoD is more than capable of getting out ahead or going even in lane. In the current meta they can also just avoiding the two vs. two lane all together and go for a lane swap.

Who do you think will come out on top?